Research on the influencing factors of evolution of oil trade network based on TERGM model

Abstract

This paper constructs a trade network using global oil trade data from 2001 to 2021, and uses TERGM model to explore the factors influencing the evolution of oil trade network. We found that the structures mutual, transitive closure, 3-outstars and 3-instars all boost the evolution of the oil trade network while cycle closure structure impede the evolution of the oil trade network. In addition, the level of national economic development inhibits the change of oil trade relations. Finally, geographical distance has little effect on the evolution of oil trade network, and the national border and common language have positive effect on the evolution of oil trade network.