Dynamic changes and trend prediction of land use in Suizhou city based on PLUS model

Abstract

To explore the law of land use change in Suizhou City, strengthen land resource management and improve the efficiency of land resource utilization, this paper study the dynamic changes and trend prediction of land use in Suizhou City. In this study, three periods of Landsat-TM/ETM and Landsat 8 satellite image data in 1995, 2005 and 2015 were selected, and the evolution of land use pattern in Suizhou City from 1995 to 2015 was analyzed by calculating its land use area and percentage, land use dynamics and establishing a land use transfer matrix. The PLUS model Kappa coefficient was found to be 0.81 and the accuracy meets the requirement. We considered six natural factors, two social factors, and one limiting factor and predicted the land use pattern of Suizhou City in 2035. The results show that from 1995 to 2015, the proportion of cultivated land and forest land area was 33.43%~34.23% and 61.29%~62.49%, respectively. The proportion of unused land had always been the lowest, accounting for 0.01%. The proportion of grassland, water area, and construction land was 0.25%~0.27%, 2.48%~2.83%, and 0.60%~2.20%, respectively. The land area of construction land in Suizhou City changed the most dramatically among all land types from 1995 to 2015, with a land use dynamics of 13.28%. From 1995 to 2015, cultivated land in Suizhou City was mainly transformed into construction land and forest land, accounting for 42.28% and 44.28% of the outflow area, respectively. The conversion of forest land to arable land accounted for 66.50% of the transferred area. The increase in construction land mainly derived from arable land and forest land, accounting for 66.60% and 32.21% of their transferred area, respectively. The Kappa coefficient of the PLUS model was 0.81, indicating that the model can be used for the study of land use change in Suizhou City. The prediction results indicate that the construction land area in Suizhou City will significantly increase by 2035 and expand to the southwest, northeast, northwest, and central regions, with an increase in forest land area, a decrease in cultivated land area, and a slight reduction in grassland, water area and unused land area. The study results can provide a decision-making basis for land use policies and planning measures in Suizhou City, and also facilitate relevant departments to guide urban construction and land development activities more reasonably.