Prediction model of runway thawing settlement in frozen soil region under aircraft dynamic load

Abstract

To investigate the influence of different years and aircraft dynamic load parameters on the thawing settlement of airport runways in frozen soil region, a three-dimensional numerical model is applied to analyze the thawing settlement effect of the runway in frozen soil region under different aircraft quality, taxiing speed, pavement evenness index and years. And the prediction model of runway thawing settlement in frozen soil region is established, which is affected by the multi-factor comprehensive influence of aircraft quality, taxiing speed, pavement evenness index, and years. The goodness of fit of the prediction model is 0.988 under a 95% confidence level, which shows that the prediction model can objectively predict the thawing settlement of runway in frozen soil region. The study provides technical support for airport construction and development in frozen soil region.