Integrated Sustainability Assessment of Electric Bus Adoption: A Comprehensive Model for Ecological, Economic, and Operational Impact

Abstract

 The spread of electric stations in cities around the world is an important step towards sustainable urban transportation. In Task 1,We developed the FE-VC model to determine carbon emission indicators based on the BWM approach, and demonstrated the ecological consequences over the life cycle through quantitative models. In the quantitative calculation of urban data, compared with diesel buses, the carbon emission reduction rate of pure electric buses is 28.68%, mainly from the fuel cycle, in which the carbon emission reduction rate of the fuel cycle stage is as high as 40.11%, and it takes about 3.5 years to achieve the relative carbon emission reduction. In Task 2, we construct an economic impact consequence model based on the time value of capital with the theory of time value of money as the core, consider the full life cycle of acquisition, operation and vehicle maintenance, quantify and visualize the impact mechanism of electric buses on the economy, and provide a method to understand the economic impact for metropolitan areas. For task 3, based on the optimal enterprise operating cost and the optimized economic impact model, we construct the initial replacement model of the electric bus. The initial replacement model was optimized by simplifying the social cost of carbon emission, and an electric bus replacement model based on the optimal enterprise operating cost was obtained. In city-specific applications, we find that vehicle choice has a significant impact on fleet replacement plans and operating costs, and that using multiple vehicles can significantly reduce operating costs as electrification rates increase.