Research on Carbon Peak Prediction in Electric Power Industry Based on DeBruyn and System Dynamics Model

Abstract

As a critical field of carbon emission, the clean and low-carbon transformation of power industry is extremely critical to the smooth realization of country’s "dual carbon" goal. From the perspective of the whole power industry chain, the DeBruyn decomposition method was firstly used to determine critical influence factors of carbon emission in the power industry. Next, the response relationship between the influence factors and carbon emission was established. Finally, the peak value and its occurrence time under various scenarios were identified through designing four typical scenarios. The obtained results demonstrated that, under the context of interactive influence among positive driving factors (population size, thermal power generation, industrial structure, GDP), negative driving factors (forest area, energy structure, science and technology investment) and other factors, the carbon-emission amounts of the power industry under baseline scenario were increased continuously; conversely, the peak value of carbon emission under two single carbon reduction policy scenarios (i.e. carbon trading policy and renewable energy quota policy) and their composition scenario would become decrease, being 5.46×109 tons, 5.61×109 tons and 5.16×109 tons, respectively. Correspondingly, the occurrence time of peak value under three scenarios was in 2029, 2029 and 2028, respectively.