Study on the three-child policy of the Chinese population based on the grey prediction model

Abstract

In order to ensure the sustainable development of China's population and the stability of the economy and society, the implementation of the three-child policy [1] can solve the problem of China's population aging and promote the optimization of the population structure. Based on the analysis of the relevant population data in the National Bureau of Statistics, this paper mainly studies the problem of the three-child policy on China's population, and analyzes the changes of China's population. First, through the National Bureau of Statistics collected the data of China's population number, birth rate, mortality rate and natural growth rate in China in the past two decades, the change trend of China's population from 2021 to 2035 was obtained, and the final prediction results were obtained by using the grey prediction model GM (1,1). Secondly, the influence vector of the three-child policy is obtained by using the influence vector under the two-child policy, and the natural growth rate under the influence of the three-child policy from 2021-2025 is obtained. Then, the remaining natural growth rate from 2026-2035 is predicted according to the gray prediction model, and the predicted natural growth rate from 2022-2035 is deduced to deduce the population of China from 2022-2035. Finally, the study of this problem is related to China's population structure, labor resources, social security and economic development and other aspects, which needs to conduct in-depth research and analysis from multiple dimensions to formulate scientific and reasonable policies and measures, and provide important information for social and economic development planning.