China's oil and gas demand forecast and pipeline network layout optimization analysis

Abstract

In order to accelerate the speed of pipeline network construction and expand the scale of oil and gas pipeline network, we need to forecast the total oil and gas demand and regional demand structure, so as to better serve the future construction of national oil and gas network. In this paper, the LEAP model is used to forecast the total oil and gas demand consumption and its regional distribution in 2050. The results show that in the low-carbon scenario, China's oil and gas will decrease in 2035, but still maintain a certain proportion. There are great differences in oil and gas demand among provinces. In the future, the layout of oil and gas pipeline network should consider the changes of demand structure and spatial layout, and comprehensively consider the transportation distance, transportation cost, transaction price and other factors of oil and gas pipeline network, so as to scientifically layout oil and gas transportation pipeline and optimize the flow of resources.